Abstract

The economy of Sierra Leone relies heavily on rain-fed agriculture and institutional resilience remains fragile, climate-induced natural disasters are no longer just environmental events; they are direct economic threats. This study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to examine both the immediate disruptions and long-term economic impacts of floods, droughts, landslides, heat stress, and erratic rainfall. The analysis reveals a significant long-run relationship between real GDP, disaster-related damage, agriculture, and CO₂ emissions. Strikingly, a 1% increase in climate-related damage corresponds with a 0.876% rise in GDP, largely driven by post-disaster reconstruction efforts and aid flows. Agriculture and emissions also show positive long-term contributions to economic growth, showing the paradoxical correlation between environmental stress and economic performance. In the short run, however, the story is different. Disasters sharply reduce output due to the destruction of infrastructure and livelihoods. The error correction term (-0.596) suggests that while the economy gradually adjusts, correcting nearly 60% of shocks each year, recovery is slow and often expensive. The model’s high R-squared values and stability diagnostics confirm its reliability and functionality. More importantly, the findings deliver a clear message: climate shocks are already reorienting Sierra Leone’s economic future. To stay ahead, climate resilience must move from the margins of development planning to the center. This study calls for bold, proactive policies. Investing in early warning systems, climate-smart agriculture, disaster-proof infrastructure, and managing climate-related migration are no longer optional; they are urgent. If acted upon, these paper offer a model and a template not just to recovery, but to sustainable, inclusive economic growth driven by resilience and foresight.